In 1940, fewer than one in four American adults age 25 and older had completed high school. By 2017, nearly nine in ten had. Making high school completion an expectation was an enormous achievement. Making that expectation real for every student, and ensuring it opens doors to what comes next, remains unfinished work.

Public confidence in that promise is shaky. In the same Gallup survey I mentioned last night, 32% of Americans rate K-12 schools excellent or good at preparing students for college, and 21% at preparing them for work. Those are perceptions, not outcomes. They are also the standard the public is holding a diploma to.

One place to start is almost four years before anyone orders a cap and gown.

Research from the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research found ninth-grade course performance to be a strong predictor of graduation. Whether students earn enough credits to advance, with no more than one failed core course, gives educators an early indication of who needs support and time to act.

That is the premise behind the Center for High School Success's new 9th Grade Success Accelerator. The Center has worked with more than 300 high schools across over 100 districts since 2018, helping educators organize around the transition into high school. That means dedicated ninth-grade teams with regular time to meet, shared information on grades and attendance, and support that reaches students before missed assignments or absences become a semester's worth of lost ground.

With philanthropic support from MacKenzie Scott, the Accelerator will bring up to 10 districts into a fully funded, 18-month partnership beginning in January 2027. Districts will receive training, side-by-side coaching, data analysis support and opportunities to learn from one another as they put those practices in place. The aim is to make noticing and responding to students' needs a routine part of how schools operate. Districts have until October 30 to express interest.

Recognizing students' ambitions belongs in that work, too. In Getting Smart, Equal Opportunity Schools CEO AJ Gutierrez cites a survey in which 89% of students wanted to attend college. Educators estimated that only 73% did. Making advanced courses available still leaves schools with the work of helping students understand their options, believe they belong, and enroll.

When that happens matters as much as whether it does. Education Week reports on a new CALDER study of Washington districts that automatically enrolled proficient 11th and 12th graders in the most rigorous courses available, rather than waiting for them to opt in. Researchers found no significant effect on whether those students enrolled in college or returned for a second year. By junior year, co-author Megan Austin of the American Institutes for Research told Education Week, students' expectations and transcripts are largely set. The authors' conclusion is that accelerating students earlier may carry longer-run effects.

There is encouraging news beyond graduation. Community College Daily reports that college persistence is improving, according to new findings from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Among 2023 graduates of high-poverty high schools who enrolled in college, 76% returned for a second year, up 1.7 percentage points from the preceding class. The comparable rate for graduates of low-poverty schools was 90.6%.

Progress, with considerable distance still to go. Each of these stories is about keeping possibilities open: a ninth grader recovering a failed class before it becomes a pattern, a junior learning that the AP section was meant for him, a college freshman making it back for year two. In every case, the adults nearby have the information early enough to act. The harder part, as Gutierrez puts it, is getting the right information to the right adult at the right time.

— Thomas

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